This welfare approach is economically unsound on so many levels. Raila is proposing to underwrite the unemployment menace through welfare. In total, $19 trillion has been spent on these welfare programs but the poverty problem still persists. To put this into context, welfare programmes on poverty in the US ballooned from $107 billion to $688 billion by 2015.
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Economic experts have analyzed and proposed that a fifth one be added - welfare. These are the grave, the barren womb, the thirsty desert and the blazing fire. The Bible teaches us in Proverbs 30:16 that there are four things that are never satisfied. And should they be impatient to listen to the end, the short answer to the question of whether their approach is effective, is that it is not. Now that we have established that, I invite him and his political advisers for a candid economic conversation. I am not a politician, so I pose no existential threat to Raila’s pursuit of the throne. The question we should ask is ‘has Raila unleashed the cobra effect on the unemployed in this country?’ Neither should the argument be that, if we stopped the daily theft of Sh2 billion, then we can sustain this fairy tale promise. The focus should not be on where the money to fund this programme will come from. Many of his critics and those skeptical to the pragmatism of this campaign promise have questioned how it will be sustainably funded, seeing as we have a struggling economy.īut I posit that we are asking the wrong question.
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His campaign promise was to make Kenya a welfare state. In his reasoning, Raila said this mitigation measure will go a long way in improving the livelihoods of the millions of unemployed youth and people. He is on public record pledging that should he become the president in next year’s general election, all the youth in Kenya will get employment, and a monthly stipend of Sh6,000 will be given to two million of the poorest households and unemployed youth. One of those campaign promises has been by ODM leader Raila Odinga. They can attract similarly-positioned voters, while strongly repelling voters who disagree with the candidate’s position. These promises tend to have a polarizing effect on voters opinions of politicians. Aspiring politicians use them to signal to voters their intentions once they ascend to political office, in a bid to woo them to vote for them. Campaign promises in and of themselves, are a cornerstone of representative democracies. It is a fix that fails.īack home, we are in the season of election campaign promises.
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This effect occurs when incentives designed to solve a problem actually make it even worse, resulting in negative unintended consequences. This has since been known as the cobra effect. Without the bounty rewards, the locals who were breeding the cobras released the now worthless serpents back into the city, leading to a higher cobra population than before the snake bounty was introduced. The British realised their folly and scrapped the programme. Upon further investigation, the British imperialists discovered there were many enterprising Indian locals who started breeding cobras to make more money. Soon after, the number of cobra snakes presented to the bounty offices for the reward kept on increasing. Problem solved…or so the British thought! Many rewards were claimed and the number of cobra snakes spotted in Delhi started to decrease. Initially, this programme worked like gangbusters and appeared highly successful. They launched a bounty programme where citizens were rewarded with cash for each dead cobra they brought into the government bounty facilities. In the reign of British Raj of colonial India, the government of Delhi found that there were too many cobras in the capital city.Īs a solution to prevent the deaths of British imperialists from these venomous serpents, the British hatched what they thought was a brilliant strategy to curb the huge cobra population.